Oh, No! World War III is coming!

1024px-Operation_Upshot-Knothole_-_Badger_001
Photo courtesy of National Nuclear Security Administration / Nevada Site Office

Yesterday I dismissed the idea that there would be a draft.  Today, let’s talk about the fighting by and with Iran is going to lead to World War III.

So let’s review the bidding:

  1. Iran orchestrates an attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad, with their terrorist-in-chief Qassem Soleimani in charge based in an airport in Iraq (where, by UN resolution, he’s not supposed to be).
  2. US launches a strike at the field command post (in Iraq, this cannot be emphasized enough–we did not attack into Iran) killing Soleimani.
  3. Iran threatens dire consequences. “Death to America” (which they’ve been chanting since 1979, so in reality no change there).
  4. US and Western media goes nuts, bemoans death of Iran’s terrorist-in-chief.
  5. Iran launches missile attack against military base in Iraq where US personnel are stationed. (Hey, at least this is an actual military target.  So….progress, I guess.)
  6. US launches mass fighter test of the new F35 fighter in Utah.  “Coincidence” of timing with missile attack against US forces in Iraq.

Based on this we’re supposed to be facing imminent World War III?

Have any of the people claiming that actually cracked open a history book? (Or perhaps they know better and are being deliberately disingenuous in order to score some kind of political points.)

Some might think that a singular random act, the Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife, sparked World War I (“The Great War” and “The War to End War” as it was fatuously known at the time) however that required a specific set of circumstances to become an actual global war rather than a modest regional conflict.  Having major powers of the time backing opposite sides in the local conflict and then their allies feeling the need to support them.  In particular, Germany (allied with the Empire of Austria-Hungary) felt compelled to take down France (allied with Russia–who supported the opposite side of the Balkan states from Austria-Hungary) before going to Austria-Hugary’s aid.  But in so doing they went through supposedly neutral Belgium, which brought in the English and the navy most capable of bottling up the German High Seas fleet and denying it the high seas, which led to the extended use of submarine warfare by the Germans which already put the US on edge and then when they tried to get Mexico to attack the US, well that brought the US in and, behold, global conflict.

In World War II we had the first the Japanese invading Mancuria, then Reichstag Fire used by the Germans as an excuse to attack Poland.  This brought in the UK and France (allied with Poland).  Japanese atrocities in Asia and the Pacific led to a US embargo on trade with them, which led to the Pearl Harbor attack bringing the US in against the Japanese.  Then the Germans in support of their nominal ally, Japan, declared war on the US, bringing us in to the European theater as well.  And then Germany had to go an attack Russia and…

None of that complicated system of alliances exists.  While there might be some public breast beating and lots of speeches, nobody’s going to send an army to support Iran.  Nobody’s going to make an overt military attack against the US.  There isn’t the set of interlocking obligations that national leaders will actually follow drawing more and more nations into the conflict.  They will no more go to war on Iran’s side then they did on Iraq’s in 2003.

So, no, this isn’t the beginning of World War III.  The idea is laughable.

So stop saying it is.

4 thoughts on “Oh, No! World War III is coming!”

  1. Seeing how some of them were going nuts about Trump and North Korea, I’m wondering if their “thoughts” involved “Iran Has Nukes just like the Soviet Union had so a conflict between the US and Iran would have to lead to the World Destroying WW3”.

    Of course, I not sure that I’d call the about True Thinking as IF Iran has any Nukes, they won’t have as many as the Soviet Union had at its strongest.

    So like North Korea, they could do very little damage via their Nukes (to the US or anybody) and the US could wipe them out (without major damage to the world) if they used their Nukes.

    Of course, they may not believe the nonsense just using the nonsense to scare people. 😦

    Like

    1. One of the benefits of joining the MAD club is a free Instant Sunrise with any official use of your limited arsenal on any other MAD club member.
      And this complementary glass paving job is still valid if one uses one’s proxies.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. John Keegan made the point that if Austria had just declared war right then, it’s very likely that it would be just another of the many indistinguishable Balkan Wars of the 1910’s.
    That they waited and prevaricated and tried to get Germany to back them up meant the Russians got involved, and that got the Germans involved, and so on.

    Like

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