The Writer in Black

Benford’s Law

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There is a statistical observation that has long been known, that in tables of numbers, statistics, etc. numbers whose first non-zero digit is “1” occur with more frequency (just under a third of the time) than other digits and the probability falls with each succeeding digit (3 is less common than 2. 4 is less common than 3. And so on.

Weisstein, Eric W. “Benford’s Law.” From MathWorld–A Wolfram Web Resource. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/BenfordsLaw.html

And this is very broadly applicable. Newcomb, in 1881, noted that the first pages in log tables (this was before calculators and electronic computers; calculating things like logarithms was a long, painstaking, laborious task, so they were compiled into large tables and bound into books so people could just look them up) were invariably more worn than succeeding pages.

Benford’s law can be an excellent indicator of whether a set of numbers occurs “naturally” or if someone has been manipulating them. Manipulation tends to throw things off. As just one example, the IRS uses Benford’s Law as one of its “red flags” to see whether an audit is needed for possible tax fraud.

Now, we come to the recent election. For the most part, results actually follow pretty closely to Benford’s Law with no more variation than you would expect from chance. Example being Miami-Dade:

But there are a few places where things are a little different. Most of the candidates results follow a normal distribution, in accordance with Benford’s Law. But, well, one of these things is not like the other:

Now, this isn’t proof of anything. But how strange that only one candidate’s results violate Benford’s Law, and only does so in a handful of places which just happen to be the places this candidate needs to swing certain states leading to that magical 270 Electoral College votes.

And this same candidate just happened to rack up large numbers of votes in the dead of night, bug chunks without a single vote for other candidates. And this candidate just happens to have a lot of ballots cast where the only vote was for President, not any of the down-ticket races. And…

Well, my friend Larry Correia, a former accountant with a great deal of experience with audits and also in recognizing the red-flags that indicate the need for an audit lists some of the many red flags here and more here.

But the media (including Fox, which appears to have sold out completely at last) is all:

And you can believe as much of that as you want to.

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